It’s kind of staggering to imagine that the world’s population is set to rise by 50 percent, to some nine billion people, by 2050. That’s a big enough challenge for global agriculture, but add to that the fact that incomes are rising in most places where populations are increasing the most (India, China), along with constrained supplies, processing capacities, and distribution channels, and you have some rather frightening prospects for keeping everyone reasonably fed.
Rapidly rising incomes in the behemoth developing nations also mean that people there tend to want to eat more meat, which in turn creates voracious demand for world grain. And if biofuels continue their pace of development, that will put even more strain on global grain and vegetable oil production.
All of this and much more was hashed out at the Aspen Ideas Festival a few weeks ago, at a session called “Billions to Be Served: Meeting the Needs of the People and the Planet.” I found it captivating, and you might too; it’s led by my old pal Jim Fallows. It’s long but very much worth it. Check it out by clicking below:
Yes–and the rhetoric of big ag business says we need more genetically modified foods and more chemicals and pesticides and bovine growth hormone to feed the masses. Yet the research indicates that the GMO and Round-Up Ready crops are actually DECREASING yields. Right now, in the midst of the debate over health care reform, it needs to be recognized that TRUE health care reform is food politics. When the people eat garbage they get sick. When the people eat GMO Round Up Ready crops they get sick. So let’s start telling our legislators NO to health care reform that will not pay for the practitioners that care for the chronic diseases–the natureopaths, LMP(T)’s, acupuncturists, herbal medicine doctors, homeopaths, chiropractors, etc. Let’s tell our legislators we CAN NOT FEED 9 million people on GMO garbage. Let’s tell our legislators that we can not EVER have a decent health care system that rewards drug companies and surgeons and feed our children garbage.
I was rather surprised that such apparently well educated people in the panel discussion were such UNPOLITICAL. By only looking for technical solutions, I think, they missed the point. When Japan (I live here) and other industrialized countries are considering or already executing buys of agricultural lands in poor countries big scale, then the poor people in those countries will not eat from those lands and will be even poorer. Second point, it took the discussion round up to the very end to to talk about an obvious (but political difficult) solution, DIATARY CHANGE: less meat on the plate will do the trick, since by feeding grain to beef, pork, chicken, so many more calories are needed to grow the meat than if one ate them directly. At the end we would all live healtier lives as well.
One challenge to the break-away cook from me, Eric, please invent some tasty vegetarian recipes!
Thanks Thomas! Great to see you here. One thing I’ve learned — it’s REALLY hard to get people to change the way they eat. It’s especially tricky in places like China and India, where culinary traditions run so strong. It’s also very difficult, and probably futile, to ask people, especially poor people, to not eat meat when they get some discretionary income. There’s something built into human DNA, I think, that craves the protein. I do think vegetarianism will grow somewhat as incomes in those places rise, but it will still be a tiny fraction of the total population (though India probably has more vegetarians than anyplace on earth). It’s kinda like telling people they shouldn’t drive cars or produce pollution-spewing gunk. No moral authority from us Westerners!
Eric,
I just wanted to write you that I agree that it is diffult to tell people what they should eat. But then, we are told 24 hours on TV what we should eat, by commercials until most people do not know why they crave something. So it is relative.
I do not have a solution, but I certainly know if all ascending middle class people are trying to copy the way the westerners are eating and living, they eventually will eat out those who are unlucky enough to live in countries with poor currency and are outbid in the purchase of their grain. Only, because the Yen is strong and buys the fish from all 4 corners of the world, and business people are building more and more Sushi places does not mean that this nation should eat the ocean fish until annilation of global fish stock.
Here politics should kick in.
I am not so sure about the craving of the protein as you say. This could be very well hundreds of years of brain washing by the cattle and meat industry. If they had the last saying everybody would eat hamburgers 3 times a day. I hear some people do. They probably have that craving. It certainly is very unhealthy. The idea that we need more and more “protein” might very well come from the PR of the body building industry and the agro-industrial complex.
I do not have a solution on this question, I certainly do not preach moral authority, but there should be a new way where westerners are also called to lead and share, just the same as in the field of (new)energy technology. This might be a worthwhile field of discussion to allaborate more.
[...] discussion from the the Aspen Ideas Festival. Thanks to the Breakaway Cook Eric Gower for the tip. Billions to Be Served: Meeting the Needs of the People and the Planet The United [...]
Thank you,
very interesting article